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How to evaluate a football match yourself: searching for value bets

There is nothing wrong with betting based on your opinion, but this strategy will not bring profit in the long run.

Why evaluate football matches yourself?

To find the best bet, you need to compare the bookmaker's odds with what you think is a more accurate representation of the actual probability of an event.

If the available odds underestimate the chances of a certain game outcome compared to your calculation, then betting on that outcome may be profitable ( value).

While this concept is easy to understand, most bettors lack data to compare bookmaker odds with.

Of course, comparing odds will help you choose where to place your bets, but calculating the probabilities yourself and comparing them with available odds is necessary to find the right place to bet on a given market.

Most people don't realize how difficult it really is win in bets. Opportunities won't come up immediately once you start evaluating matches yourself.

However, you https://mostbet-az.info/ need to start somewhere, and it will definitely help you get a better understanding of probability theory. As you deepen your knowledge, gain access to more reliable information, and experiment with

different inputs and scoring methods, you will be able to find truly profitable bets.

In this article, we will look at an example of scoring a football match.

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Start small

The prospect of doing the bookmaker's job (match odds) with incomparable resources will seem intimidating to many bettors. If you are willing to take the time to learn, make mistakes and accept failure (because they are inevitable), then self-assessment of the markets will certainly bring results.

The idea of a successful bettor has changed in recent years. Nowadays, success is mainly achieved by those who create their own models with large data sets and complex algorithms.

If you, like many others, want to reach the level of professional players, then you should understand that you have to start off. You can't just fire up Excel or Python, load up a huge database, and experiment until you get something useful. Start with a simple method and small amounts of data, and then gradually increase the complexity of the problem.

An example of evaluating a football match

To explain why it is important to evaluate a football match before betting, we will use a simple example . It should be noted that this approach has a number of disadvantages (which we will discuss later) and by itself will not help you find profitable football betting opportunities.

However, it is not enough to simply say that it works or does not work . The most important thing to understand is why this is so.

I used the Poisson model to calculate 1 X 2 odds for a series of Premier League matches (for this example, I chose the first round of the 2019-2020 season). The use of the Poisson distribution in betting is discussed in more detail in another article, but here we will also briefly discuss the basics of this method.

Using Infogol data on the expected number of goals for the previous season of the Premier League (2018-2019), I was able to calculate the strength attacking and defending each team at home and away.

This gives us a relative measure of teams' ability in terms of goals scored and conceded based on the ratio of team and league averages.

By using expected goals rather than actual goals, we can get a better idea of how teams are performing and to some extent eliminate the randomness and luck that comes with a 38-game season.

1999
открытие мебельного направления. Запуск дистрибуции офисных кресел из Юго-Восточной Азии, формирование складской программы.
2001
масштабное развитие дилерской сети, охват всей территории России.
2003
производство первой партии российских кресел из импортных комплектующих.
2005
запуск производства полного цикла на собственных мощностях. Выход на объемы производства в 50 000 кресел в год.
2008
приобретение производственной площадки (г. Калининград) мощностью 250 000 кресел в год.
2010
приобретение фабрики площадью 14 000 кв.м. (г. Лосино-Петровский, Московская область) мощностью свыше 450 000 кресел в год. Выход на рынки Казахстана и Белоруссии.
2012
дальнейшая модернизация и увеличение мощности производства, масштабное расширение ассортимента до более чем 120 моделей.
2013
запуск собственной испытательной лаборатории для комплексного контроля качества материалов, комплектующих и готовой продукции.
2014
внедрение новых стандартов качества продукции, выход на рынки Прибалтики.
2015
расширение программы импортозамещения, дальнейшее увеличение мощности производства.
2016
Реновация производственной площадки в Лосино-Петровском. Приобретение нового оборудования.
2018
Открытие шоу-рума для дилеров в Москве. Проведение Международной дилерской конференции в Крыму.

Мебельное направление в цифрах

600 000
кресел
Суммарные отгрузки кресел и мягкой мебели Chairman в год
6
филиалов
Филиальная сеть  — 6 филиалов в России и Европе
11 000
Метров 2
Собственная фабрика офисных кресел и мягкой мебели
120
городов
География дистрибуции — более 120 городов, свыше 30 стран
130
Моделей
Ассортимент товарной группы Chairman — свыше 130 моделей
1 500
дилеров
Дилерская база — примерно 1 500 постоянных партнеров
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