How to evaluate a football match yourself: searching for value bets
There is nothing wrong with betting based on your opinion, but this strategy will not bring profit in the long run.
Why evaluate football matches yourself?
To find the best bet, you need to compare the bookmaker's odds with what you think is a more accurate representation of the actual probability of an event.
If the available odds underestimate the chances of a certain game outcome compared to your calculation, then betting on that outcome may be profitable ( value).
While this concept is easy to understand, most bettors lack data to compare bookmaker odds with.
Of course, comparing odds will help you choose where to place your bets, but calculating the probabilities yourself and comparing them with available odds is necessary to find the right place to bet on a given market.
Most people don't realize how difficult it really is win in bets. Opportunities won't come up immediately once you start evaluating matches yourself.
However, you https://mostbet-az.info/ need to start somewhere, and it will definitely help you get a better understanding of probability theory. As you deepen your knowledge, gain access to more reliable information, and experiment with
different inputs and scoring methods, you will be able to find truly profitable bets.In this article, we will look at an example of scoring a football match.
p>Start small
The prospect of doing the bookmaker's job (match odds) with incomparable resources will seem intimidating to many bettors. If you are willing to take the time to learn, make mistakes and accept failure (because they are inevitable), then self-assessment of the markets will certainly bring results.
The idea of a successful bettor has changed in recent years. Nowadays, success is mainly achieved by those who create their own models with large data sets and complex algorithms.
If you, like many others, want to reach the level of professional players, then you should understand that you have to start off. You can't just fire up Excel or Python, load up a huge database, and experiment until you get something useful. Start with a simple method and small amounts of data, and then gradually increase the complexity of the problem.
An example of evaluating a football match
To explain why it is important to evaluate a football match before betting, we will use a simple example . It should be noted that this approach has a number of disadvantages (which we will discuss later) and by itself will not help you find profitable football betting opportunities.
However, it is not enough to simply say that it works or does not work . The most important thing to understand is why this is so.
I used the Poisson model to calculate 1 X 2 odds for a series of Premier League matches (for this example, I chose the first round of the 2019-2020 season). The use of the Poisson distribution in betting is discussed in more detail in another article, but here we will also briefly discuss the basics of this method.
Using Infogol data on the expected number of goals for the previous season of the Premier League (2018-2019), I was able to calculate the strength attacking and defending each team at home and away.
This gives us a relative measure of teams' ability in terms of goals scored and conceded based on the ratio of team and league averages.
By using expected goals rather than actual goals, we can get a better idea of how teams are performing and to some extent eliminate the randomness and luck that comes with a 38-game season.